The 9 Seats Deciding the New Brunswick Election
October 11, 2024
Background
New Brunswick could be a wildcard in an election season focused on British Columbia. Incumbent two-term premier Blaine Higgs has sunk to be one of the most unpopular premiers in the country for months now.
Despite popularity well below 40%, the PCNB polling average has remained above Higgs’ approval for almost this entire term.
The Electoral Map in New Brunswick has also been redrawn, much to the dismay of Greens, with the splitting of leader David Coon’s seat and putting their Kent North MLA at higher risk of losing, but otherwise staying even for PCs and Liberals. The small polling swing has caused a handful of close seats to flip, many of which are on this list, the PCs only cushioned by the collapse of the PA. Currently, almost 2/3 of seats are classified as safe (15-33.3%) or locked (>33.3%).
Considering New Brunswick is a small province (with Atlantic politics, nonetheless), modelling is complex. Local swings can upend predictions anywhere in the province, but modelling is about as close as we can get.
The List
Fredericton North
Saint John Harbour
Kent North
Saint John West-Lancaster
Saint John Portland-Simonds
Fredericton South-Silverwood
Moncton South
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins
Tracadie
Fredericton North
Beginning directly in the capital, this riding, set directly across from the legislature grounds, has historically been one to watch. Fredericton North has generally been a small step to the left from being a perfect bellwether. Its PC MLA, Jill Green, lost by a narrow margin in 2018 to incumbent Liberal MLA Steven Horsman (A seasoned MLA seeking election in Oromocto-Sunbury), but with the 2020 Liberal collapse in Southern NB, Horsman fell to third, following distantly behind Green and Luke Randall, who painted himself from green to red in the last four years, the Liberal candidate in the riding this time around.
Now, onto the projection, the PCs hold a slight lead in the riding, the closest in the province, with an actual three-way race here, with all three main parties having a footing in the riding. Whoever can get their foot through the door, it’s much too early to say.
Saint John Harbour
The heart of Saint John, covering both ends of the harbour around downtown. The riding held the longtime leader of the NBNDP, Elizabeth Weir. The riding has the most extended NDP history in the province.
This riding has been described by 2020 Green and Saint John City Councillor Brent Harris as “the most impossible riding to predict,” like many other urban areas and small towns similar in size to Saint John Harbour, candidate swings matter a lot. And, like in many other seats across New Brunswick, the Liberals hold the advantage with entrenched history in the riding and city councillor David Hickey under their banner. The NDP’s rise provincewide carries them very far in this riding, with their highest projected result anywhere in the province. Do I think they’ll be able to pull a whole 13%? Not personally, but models are numbers, not opinions.
Kent North
Moving to the first of 3 rural seats on the list, Kent North could be a dark horse regarding how margins split among the left. Beloved Green MLA Kevin Arseneau faces another tough go at re-election, running against former Liberal MP Pat Finnigan.
The redistributed riding also doesn’t help Arseneau, shaving his 2020 margin of nearly 13 points down to only 7 in the notional results. Star candidacies for both parties, a close riding in the last two ridings, and the Liberal rise across the province while the Greens have stagnated have made this a horserace. Currently, my model has the Greens leading by less than a point, with the PCs and PA both pushed far down, making this a clear two-way statistical tie.
Saint John West-Lancaster
Moving back to Saint John, in the city's west end, popular longtime PC MLA Dorothy Shephard is ending her provincial political career in the riding after serving for 14 years. She clamped tightly onto this locally focused riding, making it one of the safest in the city in the last election. She served in varying healthcare and service related ministries until her famous handwritten resignation note in 2023 over disagreements with Policy 713.
The PCs have nominated Kim Costain, who’s received varying media coverage over previous TikToks she’s posted. While this usually wouldn’t be an issue, it’s confused voters and myself alike. Blaine Higgs is from the right of the party, and nominating someone with a TikTok history like her is confusing, to say the least. Moving on, the Liberals nominated Kate Wilcott, a local arts and culture coordinator. The Greens nominated star councillor, Joanna Killen, the candidate in the riding in 2020. She had the second-highest Green increase from 2018 to 2020 in the region. Saint John West-Lancaster will be a good barometer for how the Liberals perform in the South after their 2020 disaster in the area, alongside being a good representation of Green support from 2020 to 2024 with the same candidate.
Saint John Portland-Simonds
Hopping across the sound is Saint John Portland-Simonds. Like Lancaster, longtime PC MLA Trevor Holder isn’t seeking re-election, going as far as resigning his seat in April after representing the area for 25 years. In my model, the Liberals are filling the vacuum in this riding with all parties nominating relative paper candidates in terms of candidate bonuses. Paired with Saint John West-Lancaster, this riding will be one to watch as a litmus test for Liberal and other parties’ performance in the South.
Fredericton South-Silverwood
Moving an hour north to Fredericton, Susan Holt is looking to win re-election in Fredericton South-Silverwood, split from the former ridings of Fredericton South and Fredericton West-Hanwell. Susan Holt previously ran in Fredericton South in 2018, performing well against Green Leader David Coon. Out of all the capital seats, she had the second-lowest decline in vote share and managed to take second place from the PCs in 2014. Fredericton West-Hanwell was the only other riding in the region with that status, from Dominic Cardy being the NDP candidate in 2014 to the PC candidate in 2018, arguably making Susan Holt’s performance an anomaly.
Even in the Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore by-election, which got Holt into the legislature, she overperformed my by-election tracker by 4 points, which is not particularly significant. Still, it goes to show she is a strong campaigner. She may have difficulty like Sonia Furstenau in Victoria-Beacon Hill, who’s in a similar situation. Unlike Furstenau, she’s in the lead in this riding, running against two strong candidates, Nicolle Carlin for the PCs and Simon Ouellette for the Greens. This is the primary three-way race in the province because Holt’s position in the riding isn’t exactly secure like the other major party leaders, with one of the highest Margins of Error for the main three in any projection in the province.
Moncton South
Moving to the province's largest city, but arguably the least interesting. All races in the city and its area are two-way races. This riding has never elected an MLA more than twice, except for Jim Lockyer, who served three terms in the 90s. Luckily for incumbent PC MLA Greg Turner, he was only elected in 2020, as Liberals were washed back out of urban core seats they held in 2018. Moncton South is one of the rare ridings without candidate swings, meaning that the projection’s swings are purely based on polls. This provides an insight into how the so-called ‘median riding’ is projected to vote based on modelling. Currently, the Liberals hold a thin margin over the PCs, with the Greens in a distant third.
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins
Moving out of the urban ridings, Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins succeeded the riding of Hampton but not without some pretty big land swaps in the east and western portions. The new riding is a point more Progressive Conservative than the riding of Hampton, although this could be a dark horse flip, like Tracadie, the next riding on the list. Gary Crossman was the only MLA to represent the modern riding of Hampton. He is not seeking re-election, and in his place, a controversial Christian activist candidate in Faytene Grasseschi could force this riding to flip Liberal. Crossman endorsed the Liberals in the riding to succeed him. To make matters worse for Grasseschi, former PC MP John Herron is running for the Liberals. If there was any non-Francophone rural seat to flip away from the PCs, Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins would be near the top of the list.
Tracadie
Ending off in the only northern riding on this list, Tracadie again could be a dark horse based on how much well-known singer Serge Brideau overperforms the typical result in the riding. Like other northwestern seats, this riding is not unfamiliar with huge swings.
Serge Brideau is running for the Greens with a lot of momentum from personal popularity, local scandals, and Liberals falling in the North. He is running against incumbent MLA Keith Chiasson.
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