The 6 Ridings To Watch in Alberta
April 27, 2025
Alberta is home to Part 5 of my series on ridings to watch. You can see the other parts on the rest of my substack here:
This part covers the province of Alberta, which has 37 seats to be won. Many are already locked for the Conservative party, meaning that the projected margin of victory is above 33.3%, and there is very, very, very little chance of any other party winning the seat. Among the >30 projected seats for the CPC to win here, 24 are considered locked right now. This means that the floor for the Conservatives is so high that there’s virtually no chance the Conservatives even come close to losing this province. The only path for the Conservatives to lose ground in this province is through the two major urban areas, where all the ridings on this list are.
The List
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Griesbach
Calgary Skyview
Calgary Confederation
Edmonton Southeast
Calgary Centre
Edmonton Centre
Starting off in Edmonton, where the most competitive three-way races happen, is the pinnacle of this: Edmonton Centre. Edmonton Centre has a history of being competitive among all three major parties. It voted Liberal in 2015 and 2021, Conservative in 2019, while the NDP were in a competitive third in all three and even before then. The NDP has been improving their organization recently, which could help them if there’s a specific local race change that the models can’t necessarily catch up to. Models can be made to keep track of local race changes and updates, something I pride myself on, having extremely accurate riding by riding results generally, even in races where things have changed dramatically. While the NDP isn’t expected to fully pick up this seat with the rising Liberals and their poor polling numbers, they aren’t expected to fall as much as they are in some other seats, like in many rural Alberta ridings. Trisha Estabrooks represents the NDP and is a notable trustee (she resigned very recently to run in this election). Singh has made several visits here, with a lot of focus on this and the next riding on the list, so they could have internals that give them a good result here. It is a three-way race after all. For the Conservatives, Sayid Ahmed is a director at the Alberta Department of Health who could win this seat in the case of a perfect but unlikely scenario which the NDP and Liberals split their vote even enough to allow him to win. The Liberals have Eleanor Olszewski, who previously was their candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona before being shuffled here early in the campaign. Randy Boissonnault was the Liberal MP in 2015 and 2021, but has faced several scandals around his businesses bidding on government contracts after claiming to be indigenous. He chose not to seek re-election, potentially encouraged by the party in an attempt not to get dragged down by his infamy.
Edmonton Griesbach
The other interesting NDP race in the province is in Edmonton Griesbach, currently held by the NDP, rookie MP Blake Desjarlais is trying to hold this seat. Unlike in Centre, the NDP has a much higher chance of winning here, with the Liberals not being as seriously competitive. The NDP have also been pushing resources here as all 3 of their target seats in Alberta are clustered in this downtown area of Edmonton, which makes for interesting two-way races in Calgary and three-way races in Edmonton. The Conservatives have Kerry Diotte, a former councillor and MP from 2015 to 2021. This seat has been competitive since its creation in 2015, with now MLA Janis Irwin nearly picking up the seat as the CPC bled support to the LPC in the red wave. In 2019, thanks to Andrew Scheer being from Saskatchewan, the party got massive increases in support in Alberta and the prairies in that election, with this seat going Conservative with over 51% of the vote. In 2021, it was an upset NDP victory as one of two CPC → NDP seats in that election and one of three total NDP gains. Desjarlais is trying to hold this seat in this close race, but with the NDP losing support to the Liberals and the Liberals beginning to crack into this seat, it could be difficult to pull off another victory here. This riding could indicate, before we get results in BC, how NDP support is likely to split, as BC is where a huge slice of the party is from right now.
Calgary Skyview
Crossing to the northern Calgary, Calgary Skyview is the remnants of what was split off from other ridings in northern Calgary.
Calgary Skyview's population ballooned due to new suburban development, so the riding of Calgary McKnight was carved out of it. The remaining riding was Conservative by about a 20-point margin in 2021, but that was half of the margin in 2019. This riding is now somewhat competitive and has turned into nasty fighting among the main party candidates. Liberal Hafeez Malik has accused Conservative Amanpreet S. Gill of participating in a violent fight at a Sikh temple. Liberals are still hoping to continue making gains here as they ride a red wave in the province. Trudeau in 2015 was only able to top out at two seats in Calgary, but in this election, Liberals are hoping to get double that in the city, potentially. With a more favourable map opening up two seats in Skyview and McKnight, and with Conservative infighting here as well, this riding could flip Liberal with new developments and a higher immigrant population. We don’t definitively know how visible minorities in general will vote, although the assumption is that they’ll take a step to the right, but again, like Griesbach, this riding will tell us how true that is among South Asians before ridings in Richmond or Surrey come in and report.
Calgary Confederation
In the heart of Calgary, Calgary Confederation is one of the most Liberal friendly places in Calgary and the province as a whole, it’s been among the top 3 closest seats in the city the last two decades but hasn’t gone Liberal in decades, but this election could be a change in scenery hear. The Liberals have been making gains in this seat for a while now and this seat has been getting more and more competitive. It’s a rare Conservative urban seat, and if the Liberals are able to win this target seat it could cause quite a stir. The Liberals managed to flip Calgary Centre with star candidate Kent Hehr, a former MLA for a large part of this riding provincially, but Centre isn’t expected to be as competitive as Confederation this time. The Liberals have been targeting this seat thanks to the ‘51’st state’ scandal and the riding name being associated with Canadian confederation.
This riding is also an open one, with three term Conservative MP Len Webber not seeking re-election this time. His replacement is Jeremy Nixon, who lost the nomination in Calgary Signal Hill, west of Confederation, but lost and is now running here. He lost re-election in the 2023 Alberta election, serving for only one term. He’s running against Corey Hogan a well known journalist in the city and Vice President of the University of Calgary. Calgary has seen two visits from Carney at the time of writing with Poilievre only visiting once at the end of the campaign, on the defense as the strategy rounding out the campaign. This election is expected to be its closest one yet for the riding with a lot of overlap in the Margin of Error between the two parties. Will this one fully flip is hard to say but with the seat leaning Conservative, the model points towards no.
Edmonton Southeast
The last Edmonton riding on the list is a new one in Edmonton Southeast. The riding is extremely favourable to the Liberals in the current environment of gaining polling numbers. Even without candidate swings this riding is expected to flip but that’s exacerbated by star Liberal candidate Amarjeet Sohi, the mayor of Edmonton, who is not unfamiliar to politics being a former MP and councillor. He was elected for a part of this old riding in 2015 in the red wave and he’s expected to win this seat back. The old riding was split in two and the more Liberal part is now in this riding which helps with the party’s chances here. Trying to defend this seat for the Conservatives is Jagsharan Singh Mahal, a lawyer. The Conservatives could hold this seat or at least cut down the margin if they overperform in the polls here like in the last election, although its hard to determine polling errors unless its a consistent error which, while it’s a general issue that Conservatives federally are underestimated in polling, it’s hard to determine where that will be concentrated.
Calgary Centre
The last riding on the list is another inner city seat in Calgary, this one south of Confederation and south of the Bow River. This riding isn’t as competitive as Calgary Confederation because it’s not an open seat, Greg McLean is running for a third term after winning the seat in 2019 after the blue spike with Scheer as Conservative leader. McLean has locked this seat up much further than in Confederation and it’ll be harder for the Liberals to win this seat like they did in 2015. This riding tends to swing more than Confederation so if there’s a lot of swing here we could get a scenario where this riding flips but Confederation stays as a hold for the CPC, while unlikely. The Liberals have Lindsay Luhnau, who has been getting lots of support over concerns over US relations and has been getting broad centrist support like the federal LPC in general.
Thank you for reading this article on my six ridings I’ll be watching in Edmonton and Calgary tomorrow on election night, this province will be very blue on the map but these inner city ridings will be good measures of the health of urban Conservatives and give hints on whats to come in BC. Feel free to share and subscribe to support my work: