The 4 Seats To Watch in Atlantic Canada
April 18, 2025
This is the beginning of my series on the ridings to watch for the Federal Election happening in just a few weeks; I’ll be going region to region, talking about a handful of ridings that will be ones to watch and could tell a big story on election night. As polls close on the East Coast first, that’s where I’m starting this series!
Background
After Carney’s swearing in as Prime Minister, his short term, and then his election call, the Liberals have exploded in polls in Atlantic Canada. Now, yes, Atlantic Canada is the swingiest part of the country, but this is a swing that’s hard to argue. No other province/region has seen such a wild swing during the sudden Liberal recovery. What was the average near the end of last year (December 22)? CPC+18.5. What is the polling average now? LPC+17.1, a huge swing to say the least. Atlantic Canada gives us the first real impression of how the rest of the country will vote. When Trudeau pushed the Liberals from third to first in 2015, the Liberals won every single seat in Atlantic Canada, including some huge swings with Liberals gaining nearly 30 points in many ridings, blowing past 50, 60, and even 70% of the vote.
If the heavily Liberal polls in Atlantic Canada are correct, then the Liberals could be looking at another majority. The conversation has even turned from whether the Liberals could win every province in the region to whether opposition parties will be able to hold seats against the red waves from the Atlantic.
The List
Miramichi-Grand Lake
Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish
Central Newfoundland
Malpeque
Miramichi-Grand Lake
Starting in New Brunswick, Miramichi-Grand Lake is a historically swingy seat sprawling from Neguac to Minto and, of course, containing Miramichi in the heart of the riding. This seat was one of only a couple to flip from the Liberals to the Conservatives in 2021. Liberal Pat Finnigan held this riding from 2015 to 2021 when he didn’t reoffer, and more recently, was elected to the New Brunswick Legislature for Kent North.
The former PC MLA for Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Jake Stewart, was elected to this seat in a battle against another provincial MLA, Lisa Harris, a Liberal who represented Miramichi Bay-Neguac until the federal election. Lisa Harris is trying again to take this seat, and with the Liberals riding high, she is currently the favourite. Her attempt to take this seat is also easier, considering it’s currently “open”. There have been internal issues in the local Conservative riding association, with agent and staffer resignations and allegations of mistreatment. He’s not seeking re-election. The riding is razor thin with the new CPC candidate, Mike Dawson, now former MLA for Stewart’s old riding (redistributed into the new riding of Miramichi West, where he easily won re-election), holding a lead over Harris.
Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish
Moving out to Nova Scotia, Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish is a big riding straddling most of Cape Breton and across to Guysborough and Antigonish. This riding is a larger replacement of Cape Breton-Canso. It’s been held by the Liberals since 2000 and recently by Mike Kelloway since 2019. With this lengthy Liberal history, it’s probably surprising to see it number 2 on this list; however, it lies in the candidacies for the two biggest parties. On the Liberal side, Jamie Battiste, the current MP for Sydney-Victoria, covering Sydney and the northern part of Cape Breton. His riding was redrawn to be nearly entirely urban, containing the urban parts of the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. This drew him out of his riding, as he is a member of the Eskasoni First Nation, which now resides in Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish. Against Battiste is a former extremely notable PC MLA, Allan MacMaster, carrying the Conservative banner. He has a long record at the provincial level, representing the riding of Inverness since 2009, serving in various committees, and while in government, he was most notably Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance. He didn’t seek re-election in 2024, and in his riding of Inverness, without MacMaster on the ballot, saw one of the lowest PC vote gains in the region and even the province overall (+2) when the party gained over 14%. His impressive record could make him push this riding against the trend if rural/urban polarization continues to the federal level. Despite this, the model currently has this seat as ‘likely Liberal’.
Central Newfoundland
Unsurprisingly, based on the name, this is the seat to watch out for in Newfoundland in the 30-minute purgatory before the rest of the Atlantic Provinces close their polls. This riding was an upset flip in 2021, and it is a rare seat in which, if the PPC had run in the last election, it probably would’ve stayed Liberal. Only the big three parties are running in this seat, with the NDP's support determining if the Liberals can gain this seat or not. This was one of the first seats visited by Mark Carney at the start of the campaign because of its significance in the relationship between Canada and the United States. After the 9/11 attacks, the US government shut down airspace, with Gander residents taking in over six thousand stranded passengers, nearly doubling the population of the town. Clifford Small joins Joanne Thompson in St. John’s East in being the only MPs in the province seeking re-election. Fisheries is a big issue in the riding, like many others in Atlantic Canada, and the Conservatives have profited on seats like these in the last two elections. Still, with Carney gaining traction in the region, these seats could flip once again.
Malpeque
In the last Atlantic province, in central PEI, Malpeque is historically the closest of the four seats on the island. The Greens have recently held a strong presence here, but with their sinking support nationwide, it appears they won’t play as much of a factor as in 2019 or 2021. For the Conservatives, they’re running Jamie Fox, a notable PC MLA who’s served as interim leader of the party and has held ministerial positions in fisheries. He’s facing off against Heath MacDonald, another former MLA, elected in 2021 to this seat. This riding is currently ‘likely Liberal’ but could see big swings as this is one of the smallest ridings by population in the country.
Thank you for reading the start of this series, which will go region by region from coast to coast. Remember to subscribe so you don’t miss new editions to this series!