The 20 Seats Deciding the Ontario Election
February 26, 2025
It’s become a tradition on my substack to list the top _ number of seats that will decide the _ election, and this post is no different. However, this is the longest list I’ve made, with a whole 20 seats to look at! How fun!
Background
Doug Ford has been swirling around rumours of an early election for months now, and as a recently strong believer that nothing ever happens, I didn’t expect one to be called early this year in the dead of awful Canadian winter. However, I was proven wrong. With Trump's election south of the border, Doug Ford walked to the Lieutenant Governor’s offices in the Legislature to call an election in an attempt to gain a term that would outlast Trump.
Despite not being personally popular, Doug Ford has ridden high in the polls since being elected leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives in March 2018. He won a majority in 2018 as the Liberals collapsed across the province and was re-elected in 2022 with a larger majority thanks to a returned Liberal force, which split the vote across the province with the NDP, which took the place as the main centre-left opposition in the province. This election’s polls currently indicate that Ford is likely to hold his spot as premier, but the ground could shake if the Liberals can tighten the race and what effect the NDP will play in this election. Based on these important factors, this is my list of the 20 ridings to watch on election night on the 27th.
The List
Hamilton Centre
York South-Weston
Haldimand-Norfolk
St. Catharines
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Toronto-St. Paul's
Algoma-Manitoulin
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kanata-Carleton
Ottawa West-Nepean
Nepean
Windsor West
Kitchener Centre
University-Rosedale
Parry Sound-Muskoka
Scarborough-Guildwood
Mushkegowuk-James Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte
Humber River-Black Creek
Hamilton Centre
Starting off in the crown jewel of anyone trying to form the government through Ontario: the Golden Horseshoe. Hamilton Centre is a unique case in modern Canadian politics (at least from what I’ve seen in the last two decades) in which the former NDP leader, Andrea Horwath, resigned to run for mayor of Hamilton. Hamilton Centre is one of Ontario's most classic NDP seats at any level of government. Federally, Hamilton Centre as we know it today has voted for the NDP since 2004, its entire history. Alongside this, before the modern riding existed, it was known for electing left of centre parties for decades. The last time the modern riding voted entirely for non-left wing parties was in 1958, when the CPC won 208 seats, the largest majority government of any party in any federal election. On the provincial end, this riding and its predecessors have voted for Liberals or the NDP since 1955; like the federal result, this was one of the largest majority governments in a provincial election. It’s safe to say this one is solidly in the NDP column… right? Well, in the by-election to replace Horwath, Sarah Jama, a local activist, was elected with similar support to Horwath. Sarah Jama has attracted infamy in ONpoli circles due to her hardline stances on Gaza. This was a talking point on the Liberal side of the by-election as the Liberals managed to gain over 7 points while all other parties had minimal changes, and this seems to be their strategy once again. Back to Jama, though, she made a statement criticizing the conflict with a call to end the occupation while not directly mentioning the October 7 attack days afterward. She didn’t retract the post but apologized to Jewish Canadians for any offense. Two weeks later, the NDP kicked Jama from the caucus with Marit Stiles, the new leader of the NDP, accusing Jama of being uncooperative with the rest of the caucus. The same day she was kicked out of the NDP, she was also censured in the Ontario Legislature, with the vote passing with PC MPPs voting with their majority in favour alongside Independent (former PC) MPP Vincent Ke, the NDP and the Greens voting against. The Liberals and elected Independent MPP (formerly a PC staffer) Bobbi Ann Brady abstaining from the motion. The censuring motion means that Jama is no longer allowed to participate in the legislature like speaking during debates. The left-wing end of the NDP responded with calls for Marit Stiles to resign. Since then, the local NDP organization in Hamilton Centre have switched to supporting Jama, including both MP Matthew Green, Hamilton City Councillors, and a couple of unions. Within the local NDP, they had some struggles finding a local candidate, an awful sign for a seat that is so solidly NDP, also denying Jama’s request to get nominated as an NDP candidate for this election.
Getting to a projection now, Hamilton Centre, as it’s first on the list, is the one that I have truly no idea where it’ll go. Hamilton Centre is a left-wing riding at its core, and there’s a big argument that with almost all the influential local support going to Jama that she’ll get re-elected comfortably. The other side is that because Jama has had a lot of her priveliges as an MPP stripped that residents will be hesitant to vote for someone who won’t have the same priveliges in the legislature as an MPP from another party. My model currently favours the former with Jama (and all ‘Others’ from non-major parties). If we were to assume that the breakdown between Jama and small parties was the same as in the by-election, she’s holding around 28% of the vote by herself, and in such a volatile seat, this could be one that the model is completely and incredibly wrong on. In total transparency, the model did also say that Tom Shypitka would hold on as an Independent and that was one of the most inaccurate ridings of the BC election in my model. I could not tell you with any certainty if this riding will hold for Jama, the margin, or what party it’d jump to if she can’t hold onto the seat.
York South-Weston
Moving closer to Toronto, York South-Weston has been a three way race the last two elections and this election will be the third. In 2018 much of the scattering Liberal support shifted to the PCs in York South-Weston but it wasn’t enough causing a unique vote split of the centre, which elected NDP MPP Faisal Hassan who funny enough actually went down in vote share but the margin went from LIB+10.59>NDP in 2014 to NDP+3.12>PC. He was one of a handful of reoffering MPPs who lost in the 2022 election, losing to the PCs and their candidate Michael Ford, who yes is related to Doug Ford, being his nephew. Ford was a school board trustee and then city councillor before being elected to the legislature in this riding. In the legislature he served as Minister of Citizenship and Multiculturalism but took a leave of absence in September, and less than a month ago indicated he would not be seeking re-election. The PCs nominated Mohamed Firin, who has community involvement background and has recently worked with the Premier to advise and advocate on community opportunities. The NDP has selected Hassan again in an attempt to get him back into the legislature, who he is hopeful about his chances with, without a Ford being on the ballot in the riding. Hassan will have to compete with the name recognition from Daniel Di Giorgio, the Toronto Catholic School Board Trustee from York South-Weston. Currently in my model it’s mainly a race between the Liberals and PCs with the NDP slowly slipping behind, the story in most suburban Toronto ridings. This riding is still a three way race as all three parties have a serious chance based on the margins of error.
Haldimand-Norfolk
Moving to Southwestern Ontario, Haldimand-Norfolk was a complete upset in my and many others’ models and predictions in 2022. Bobbi Ann Brady, unhappy with the nomination within the PCs, ran as an Independent with support from her former boss and previous PC MPP Toby Barrett. Who was the PC that ran against her? Ken Hewitt, former Mayor of Haldimand. Who’s the PC running against her this time? Amy Martin, Mayor of Norfolk. Geographically, this riding is very broken up, with Bobbi Ann Brady carrying nearly all the polls in Norfolk and only about a third in Haldimand in 2022. Martin may be able to crack into a lot of her base of support this time as mayor of Norfolk.
Bobbi Ann Brady will have a tough time getting re-elected with the PCs up in the polls and her Norfolk support getting siphoned off. Currently, in the model, she is down by four points. Still, with the margin of error of both her (combined with Other parties) and the PCs being over seven percent here, this is anyone’s race, and she still has the potential to make another upset like last time.
St. Catharines
Switching back to the southern parts of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, St. Catharines is one of the key seats in the Niagara region. The peninsula is made up of 4 seats: Niagara West (Safe PC), Niagara Centre (Likely PC, flip), Niagara Falls (Likely NDP), and St. Catharines (Likely NDP). All three non-safe seats will be important to who forms a government and how big of a caucus will go along with that. While they’re important, I’m focusing on St. Catharines because it’s so highly competitive between the three largest parties. In Niagara Falls, it’s a primarily two-way race between incumbent NDP MPP Wayne Gates and the PC’s Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg, with the local Liberals struggling to find a candidate at all and are only up a poor 1% up from 2022. Back to St. Catharines, though, the major parties all are within the margin of error of each other, but incumbent Jennie Stevens is still leading over PCs Sal Sorrento, a regional councillor, and the Liberals’ Robin McPherson, a city councillor. Sorrento was the candidate in 2022 as well, but despite the NDP decreasing nearly 10 points provincewide, Stevens almost doubled her margin. If her luck and hard work in the riding keeps up, she may be able to retain St. Catharines for the NDP. No matter who wins, it will still be a close riding, so it is one to watch on election night.
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Moving to our only seat in Peel, Mississauga East-Cooksville is the seat Bonnie Crombie has selected to run in this election. Now, Crombie holds a lot of weight in Mississauga politics; she’s a former councillor, a former mayor, a former MP, and now leader of the Liberals. As mayor, she won 3 terms with over 60% each time, and as an MP, she served from 2008 before getting wiped out in the 2011 Liberal collapse. I could keep going, but it’s already apparent that Crombie has an extremely large amount of political experience. Before moving into the projection, it’s also important to note that Mississauga has voted together provincially since 1995 and federally since 2011. Like many immigrant communities, they swing together; when they don’t, they are heavily fractured. If you look at Surrey in the last BC election, almost every seat was decided by only a few percentage points. Mississauga could swing together all in the Liberal favour and continue their streak, or Crombie may be left alone in a fractured result for the city. My model is currently leaning toward the latter, but if the Liberals continue to close the gap in the GTHA, Mississauga won’t take much to flip all Liberal. I also want to note the difference between Crombie and Del Duca in this case, since I’ve had conversations with people who think because Del Duca lost in Vaughan-Woodbridge in 2022, Crombie has no shot at winning in Cooksville. I disagree with this statement partially because Del Duca’s only previous experience was as an MPP for Vaughan from 2012 to 2018 when the riding was both redistributed, and he was wiped out in the fall of the Wynne government. In Crombie’s case, the former PC MPP for Mississauga East-Cooksville, who resigned from the party during the Greenbelt scandal, Kaleed Rasheed, decided not to seek re-election in this election, leaving this seat wide open. In Del Duca’s case, he was running against locally popular PC MPP Michael Tibollo. Personally, I think that Crombie will win, and the model aligns with that, but I don’t know if she will be able to flip Mississauga or solidify this seat as much as the model shows. We’ll see if the model or my vibes are accurate at all.
Toronto-St. Paul’s
Moving back to another Toronto seat on this list, Toronto-St. Paul’s is eerily similar to St. Catharines, further up on the list. The PCs aren’t as much of a contender here, but they could still win with paper candidate Riley Braunstein if the PCs do better in Toronto than the polls indicate. If the NDP manages to hold onto their previous levels of support in Toronto, this will likely be one of the seats they hold as incumbent MPP Jill Andrew is seeking re-election. She’s running against notable CP24 journalist Stephanie Smyth, who, with the Liberals up in Toronto in range of first place, is projected to gain this seat. Based on what I’ve seen, the Liberals have a good ground game in this riding, but Andrew is fighting just as hard on the campaign trail across the riding, this could be a close one while results roll in.
Algoma-Manitoulin
The last of the three independents’ seats we’re focusing on: Algoma-Manitoulin, our first Northern seat on this list. The PCs have been targeting the NDP seats in the North and have been putting a lot of resources and making a lot of announcements during the last legislative term and during the campaign around expanding the forestry sector, opening up the Ring of Fire to access many deeply important minerals, and specifically in Algoma, helping Algoma Steel which has been negatively affected by Trump’s tariffs before and could lose a massive share of their customers if Trump brings in tariffs once again. This is one riding where the focus on tariffs is important to local jobs and the economy, something that benefits the PCs. This is also paired with the fact that incumbent former NDP MPP Michael Mantha is seeking re-election.
He was removed from the NDP after an investigation discovered he sexually harassed a staffer and ultimately decided to “leave the decision on my future in the hands of voters in Algoma-Manitoulin.” The voters of Algoma-Manitoulin currently don’t indicate that they want to re-elect him; however, as he is in fourth place behind PC Mayor Bill Rosenberg, NDP’s David Timeriski, who has no political experience, and the Liberals’ Reg Niganobe, a notable Indigenous chief.
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Our second Northern Ontario seat, up Highway 17 from Algoma-Manitoulin, Thunder Bay-Superior North, is a sprawling seat going from the northern side of Thunder Bay to Marathon, covering the north coast of Lake Superior. This is a riding we could see make history on the 27th; the last time the riding voted for the PCs was 1963, near the height of the PCs’ 40-year reign in the province. Since then, the riding has elected New Democrats and, more recently, local Liberal heavyweight Michael Gravelle, who represented this riding from 1995 to 2022. He didn’t seek re-election and in the 2022 election, the Liberals were knocked out of the North for the first time in almost a century, a trend that will continue if the model is correct. The PCs have decades-long politician in Marathon, Rick Dumas, under their banner, and he is expected to break this seat from its left-leaning loyalty. He leads over the Liberals’ Brian Hamilton, a councillor in Thunder Bay, who the PCs recently uncovered controversial tweets from. On the NDP side, incumbent MPP Lise Vaugeois is seeking re-election and could pull support from Liberals who don’t want to support Hamilton. This will be an important indicator of support for the three parties: PC flip could indicate a big PC wave across the province, a Liberal victory indicates a recovery for the party and will be in play for official opposition in the Legislature, an NDP hold would suggest the party will hold onto their support, showing a polling miss, and a strong voter efficiency, at a similar or of a larger extent than in 2022.
Kanata-Carleton
Moving to Ottawa for our next three on the list, Kanata-Carleton is a reverse case to Thunder Bay-Superior North. The riding on the western edge of the city hadn’t voted for anyone but the PCs since 1923 and had not voted for a left-wing party since confederation nearly 160 years ago. This streak was broken in an upset where the seat went Liberal in a by-election in 2023, electing former Liberal MP Karen McCrimmon by less than 800 votes, ending up OLP+2.34.
This by-election indicated a trend that the PCs are on a steady downhill in Ottawa. The party lost Ottawa West-Nepean in 2022, Kanata-Carleton in 2023, and potentially more seats in this election. This riding is razor thin in the model, with PCs holding a tiny 0.27% margin over the Liberals. PCs have Scott Phelan, an OCSB trustee, going against Karen McCrimmon, who served as the MP for Kanata-Carleton from the 2015 red wave to not seeking re-election in 2021. This will be an indicator much like Thunder Bay-Superior North on the health of the Ottawa PC brand, something the following two ridings on this list will continue to look at.
Ottawa West-Nepean
Moving east of Kanata-Carleton, Ottawa West-Nepean was the only seat an incumbent PC MPP seeking re-election lost in the last election. Like in 2022, the ground game of the NDP has been extremely motivated, much more so than in many other seats in similar spots. They do have the benefit of the UOttawa NDP behind them, powering a significant portion of their campaign. If their ground game can push against the NDP slip in polls, this is a seat where I could see the NDP being able to expand their margin. Incumbent NDP MPP Chandra Pasma is seeking re-election against the PCs and Liberals, who have both nominated candidates with little political experience, which could also work in Pasma’s favour. Marit Stiles has been regularly making trips to Ottawa to join Pasma and other candidates in the city in hopes of boosting NDP support in their two seats.
This riding has been close the previous two elections, and it’s not expected to be different this time. Like Kanata-Carleton, this riding is an extremely tight race with a PC lead, but it could be one that the opposition holds against all odds.
Nepean
Our last Ottawa riding on the list, south of Ottawa West-Nepean, the riding of Nepean is left wide open this election; incumbent MPP Lisa MacLeod is not seeking re-election after locking this seat down since 2006, winning with wide margins up until 2022 when Liberal nurse Tyler Watt cut that margin down from PC+16.6 in 2018 to PC+4.8 in the last election. Watt had the highest Liberal gain in 2022 of any candidate east of the 404 in the GTA, gaining a whopping 15%. PCs have nominated Alex Lewis, while Tyler Watt is trying again to take this seat into the Liberal column. Even with the exit of MacLeod and Watt’s strength as a candidate, this riding is still tilting towards the PCs, but it will be important to see suburban support between the Liberals and PCs.
Windsor West
Moving to the edges of SWO, Windsor West could be the final domino in Windsor-Essex to fall from the NDP to the PCs. Some of the highest swings in the 2022 election came from this region, but Windsor West held on, based a lot on having the only NDP incumbency factor with MPP Lisa Gretzky. This riding also is the only one without a Liberal on the ballot, with former candidate Moe Chehab dropping out the day of the candidate deadline, which could benefit the NDP in one of the closest two-way races in the province. Gretzky is seeking re-election and is running against Tony Francis of the PCs. As a border riding with the US and one with heavy working-class roots, tariffs are top of mind here, which could play in the PCs favour like in Algoma-Manitoulin. Despite this, the NDP is still leading here, but there is still a high possibility of this riding flipping, and with NDP chances in Oshawa dwindling, the days of the ONDP as the party of the worker may be over.
Kitchener Centre
Moving closer to the middle of the province, Kitchener Centre is on the eastern edge of Southwestern Ontario and was one I just couldn’t leave off this list. Kitchener Centre voted in a by-election in 2023 to replace NDP MPP Laura Mae Lindo. Greens shipped in volunteers from across the country to campaign in the riding, hoping to form another Green base like in North Saanich in BC, where Elizabeth May and Rob Botterell represent federally and provincially, respectively. This strategy worked, and while they were expected to pick up the riding, their margin was incredibly impressive. They nearly quadrupled their vote share from 2022, and despite turnout nearly halving, their raw votes more than doubled. It was an insane result, and I think that even understates it. While some speculate the Greens won’t be able to hold this in a general election, it’s one of three the party has been focusing on, along with Parry Sound-Muskoka and Wellington-Halton Hills, a riding surrounding Guelph, Mike Schreiner’s riding. This riding is expected to hold but with a reduction from the GPO+21.26 by-election margin as Aislinn Clancy, who served as a councillor before being elected, faces off against Colleen James, a Waterloo Regional Councillor who got the highest result in her first election to Waterloo Regional Councillor, who’s also done a lot of local work, representing the Liberals. The NDP has Brooklin Wallis, who previously ran against the NDP candidate in the by-election for her council seat in 2022, coming in second.
University-Rosedale
Moving back into Toronto, University-Rosedale is south of Toronto-St. Paul’s, going from the Don River to UofT’s downtown campus and Little Italy. Like Toronto-St. Paul’s and other nearby ridings, like Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, or York South-Weston, they shifted strongly to the NDP in 2018, but the Liberals have been crawling back as they look to continue making gains in Toronto. Incumbent NDP MPP Jessica Bell is seeking re-election and is running against Liberal businesswoman Pamela Jeffery. While the race here isn’t as tight as some others on this list, this riding has been a bellwether of sorts on the support between the Liberals and the NDP, and if the Liberals were to form the official opposition, this is one they would be extremely likely to gain. In my simulator, if the Liberals gain this seat, it secures them the official opposition slot with almost 10 seats over the NDP.
Parry Sound-Muskoka
Moving to the North, Parry Sound-Muskoka is one the Greens managed to close the gap in the last election, doubling their vote share and bringing the margin down from 2018’s PC+26.04 to 2022’s PC+4.74. The Greens have been pouring energy into this riding this entire term in hopes of flipping it. If any seats in Northern Ontario that are an upset, I think this is a strong contender as the model doesn’t want this riding to flip, especially with the inclusion of the Liberals, who didn’t run a candidate here in 2022, now back on the ballot, likely funnelling away a lot of Green support that was gained in 2022. It’s a rematch between Graydon Smith of the PCs and Matt Richter for the Greens, making this his 6th straight attempt at gaining this seat. It’s been difficult to research this riding as it’s very geographically split between Green support in small tourist towns and the PC’s strong support in Parry Sound and the rural areas of the riding.
With the Liberals playing spoiler, the Greens could struggle to continue gaining support. However, with the riding’s Green association getting resources from across the province poured into it, it’s one to watch closely as I and many others weren’t expecting this to be so close.
Scarborough-Guildwood
Our last Toronto riding on the list, Scarborough-Guildwood, is a central riding in Scarborough and has been held by the Liberals since 2003. This is also another riding with a by-election held in 2023, as MPP Mitzie Hunter resigned to seek the Mayoralty of Toronto in the municipal by-election. She ended up coming 6th with less than 3% across the city and a pitiful 3rd in this ward with 13%, nearly 20 points behind Chow, who carried the ward. In the by-election, PCs targeted this riding with Gary Crawford, a longtime municipal politician from near this riding. With the Liberals putting more of their focus on Kanata-Carleton later in the campaign (hence the split between election day results and advance votes), which had their by-election the same day, this riding slipped and came unusually close for its history as the NDP with Thadsha Navaneethan scooping up a lot of that support, coming in a close third.
This election has Andrea Hazell running against the PC’s Jude Aloysius and the NDP’s Christian Keay, both paper candidates. With the Liberals expanding their support in polling in both Toronto and Ontario, this riding is not expected to shift around if the by-election was a fluke. On the other hand, if the by-election indicated a trend, the Liberals could be pushed out of Scarborough, something not entirely impossible if the PC’s and NDP can build on their by-election support.
Mushkegowuk-James Bay
From the shores of Lake Ontario to Hudson Bay, Mushkegowuk-James Bay could be a case where the NDP goes against trends for a second time. This riding is a new one, created in 2018 to give more representation to small northern communities along with Kiiwetinoong in the northwestern corner of the province. Guy Bourgouin has represented this riding since its creation and has been generally locally popular. In 2022, PCs were extremely confident that this riding would flip alongside Timmins, but that didn’t end up coming true or even getting as close as many expected. Progressive Conservatives have been making the same claims throughout this term, but after the candidate was announced here, I’m more convinced we could have some big swings again in this part of the province. Looking at the geography of where votes are in this riding (based on the size of the dots), you can see that it’s concentrated around Hearst in the bottom left and Kapuskasing in the bottom right. Who is the PC candidate? David Plourde, the current Mayor of Kapuskasing, who has served in local government in the town for over 30 years.
Making the connection that the mayor of the largest community in the riding is running for the opposition party here, it’s easy to agree that this riding will likely be a PC pickup if there aren’t any strange, unforeseen local swings. In Timmins, the former NDP MPP of 32 years for the area lost in one of the biggest swings I’ve ever seen in an election, with the margin going from NDP+27.79 to PC+35.22, thanks to the popular Mayor of Timmins, George Pirie, representing them. In Mushkegowuk-James Bay, it very well could be a similar story where the PCs make huge gains, but only time will tell in this riding of only 25,000, the smallest in the province.
Sault Ste. Marie
We are staying in Northern Ontario, but heading south towards the GTHA, where we started. Sault Ste. Marie is a riding that could be the only NDP gain in this election due to local pushback around the PC candidate. Sault Ste. Marie was represented by Ross Romano since 2017 but decided not to seek re-election. He was the first Progressive Conservative representing the seat in over 3 decades and served in Sault Ste. Marie City Council. His replacement was Chris Scott, one of his former staffers handpicked by Ford… hmm, that sounds familiar. Current councillor Lisa Vezeau-Allen represents the NDP and has been running as the ‘local alternative’ candidate. Will it work? Again, time will tell; however, the PCs do hold the advantage here, although it is one of the only ridings where the NDP is projected to make gains, even if only slightly. Like many other ridings in the north, like Algoma-Manitoulin next door, PCs hold an advantage on tariffs and the economy, but local shifts can be hard to predict.
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte is one of the only rural seats in this list and broke the trend in 2022 of PCs continuing to rise, with popular Mayor Jeff Lehman representing the Liberals, making a gain of nearly 30 points from 2018. He is not seeking another shot at the seat, with one of the Liberal campaign managers, Rose Zacharias, running in this seat, but it isn’t expected to be as close as the last election. It will be interesting to see if the Liberals are back to relevance in Barrie as they were before 2018. Former Orillia councillor Doug Downey is seeking re-election and is expected to keep the seat, but if the Liberals drop far back down here, it could show that rural/urban polarization is continuing to worsen.
Humber River-Black Creek
Our last riding in suburban Toronto, Humber River-Black Creek, similar to Toronto-St. Paul’s, where the Liberals have historic ties here but flipped to the NDP in 2018 and held in 2022. With the NDP dipping down in Toronto and province-wide polls, they are projected to go from first to third, with incumbent MPP Tom Rakocevic seeking re-election against TDSB Trustee Liban Hassan of the Liberals, and Paul Nguyen of the PCs, who ran in the last election but underperformed compared to what many had expected in such a close riding. With the federal Liberals having a very strong grip on this riding and their support increasing recently in the polls, it could cause overlap with voters in this riding, helping push the OLP over the edge in this seat.
Thank you for reading this very long article on my top 20 ridings to watch tomorrow night! Subscribe so you don’t miss my other articles on future elections: