The 15 Seats Deciding the British Columbia Election
October 3, 2024
Background
Possibly one of the most tumultuous pre-writ periods of recent Canadian politics has ended, and we now enter a surprisingly dull writ period with the typical funding announcements, partisan bickering, wasp stings, and the sort. The Conservatives have stumbled back into the bright light of BC politics for the first time in nearly half a century. Modellers and political junkies alike are now having to look at an election map we have never seen before in the entirety of BC politics. Like the elections of late, most of the critical seats stretch from the banks of Lulu Island to the Skagit Range. While I usually look to my seat buckets of Locked/Safe/Likely/Leaning/Tilting for my projections, it’s challenging to incorporate a model attempting to project an election with a party that hasn’t won a seat in 50 years. It’s not out of the question to say there are no safe seats in this election.
BC is a unique province geographically, with over half of the seats in the Metro Vancouver region. The only province I can think of that is similar is Manitoba, which leads to some interesting splits.
Now, while it’s hard to say which riding is a definitive tossup or one that is broadly at risk because the polls are so close and modelling is complex in these circumstances, the ridings mapped below are ones where the margin is below 15% between the top 2 parties in the riding.
Now, 35 ridings make up over 1/3 of the legislature, which is the point of the list, so you don’t have a billion tabs open when polls close. Still, the main difference is that the Conservatives are at a lot more risk if they fall back, while the NDP’s floor is relatively stable at roughly 35 seats, with the Conservatives sitting at just above 20 seats using the projections and at-risk seats. The map above paints a general picture of ridings to watch on election day, but my list of ridings to watch is as follows, and I’ll do a much more intricate dive into each of them and why they are on the list.
The List
Courtenay-Comox
Saanich North and the Islands
Vancouver-Langara
Surrey-Serpentine River
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Richmond-Steveston
Nanaimo-Lantzville
Surrey-Cloverdale
Abbotsford-Mission
Langley-Willowbrook
Vernon-Lumby
Maple Ridge East
North Vancouver-Seymour
Kootenay-Rockies
Courtenay-Comox
Starting on the island, Courtenay-Comox is an infamous riding in BC elections. It was the tipping point in 2017; it has a longstanding history as a bellwether, voting with the winning party for 40 years and extending since Confederation with generally high precision. This riding has been represented by well-known MLA Ronna-Rae Leonard since 2017. She is seeking re-election against four other people: 2 independents, a Green, and a Conservative. The Conservative candidate, Brennan Day, ran in 2020 under the Liberal banner, faring better than other Liberals on the island.
The Green candidate, Arzeena Hamir, is a farmer and district director for Comox Valley Regional District, Area B. All three major candidates have some strength, which is unsurprising for such a hotly contested seat. Currently, the NDP holds a slight advantage in the riding, alongside a small seat lead province-wide.
If there’s any riding to watch on election night, it’d be Courtenay-Comox and that Green number to see where that support may split if centre-left voters get nervous about losing this seat from a vote split.
Saanich North and the Islands
Staying on the island, Saanich North and the Islands have the most discrepancies between models. Since the loss of Adam Olsen, the Greens have not led in this riding in my model. Adam Olsen boosted this riding from a longshot for the Greens in 2009 to their safest seat in 2020. The Greens nominated Rob Botterell, a longtime lawyer known for protections for First Nations. The party has faced controversy for disqualifying now-independent candidate Amy Haysom. The Conservatives nominated David Busch, a lawyer and previous Conservative candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, in 2019 and 2021, increasing his vote share both times. The NDP nominated Central Saanich councillor and healthcare leader Sarah Riddell. Currently, the Conservatives are leading with a razor-thin margin.
Vancouver-Langara
Moving over to Metro Vancouver, Vancouver-Langara has a long voting history with the Liberals, although the seat has continued to tighten over the past several elections.
The notional results in the riding give the Liberals a lead of only 2.3 in 2020, and the current projection is that the NDP leads by 5.3. It’s a three-way race in the riding, with controversial candidate Bryan Breguet, a professor at Langara College, representing the Conservatives. Breguet has been the victim of several NDP attacks and even a BC United opposition research document.
The NDP nominated Sunita Dhir, a non-profit worker, and the Greens nominated Scottford Price, a university enrolment professional. It’s a tight race in Vancouver-Langara, and the Conservative controversy is hurting the party.
Surrey-Serpentine River
Surrey-Serpentine River is a new riding formed primarily out of Surrey-Cloverdale. The notional results showed that the NDP won by 11.2 points in 2020, and the Liberals won by 1.7 in 2017. The Conservatives nominated former Surrey mayor and three-term councillor Linda Hepner. The NDP nominated decorated officer Baltej Singh Dhillon, who is well-known in the Sikh community for being the first RCMP officer allowed to wear a turban. Independent candidate Jim McMurtry was a teacher and former federal Liberal candidate in 2006. He’s garnered controversy for teaching residential school deaths were mainly from disease and caused a stir on Twitter for this post:
The Conservatives lead in the riding in my current model, although this riding, and others in Surrey, will be hard to project due to the nature of the unique communities in this part of the province.
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Victoria-Beacon Hill could be a dark horse riding; Sonia Furstenau won unexpectedly in Cowichan Valley in 2017, even being down in expenditures against the two main parties. Sonia Furstenau moved to Victoria recently and is seeking quasi-re-election against Minister Grace Lore in this district. The Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann, is a lawyer. Sonia Furstenau has been running an extensive campaign in the Victoria area, so it’s more than possible she will be able to win. The double-edged sword for her is that she’s the leader of the Greens; when she pulled off her upset in 2017, she wasn’t the leader of the BCGP, so she was able to focus exclusively on her riding, although the obvious counterpoint is that leaders typically win their seat. If it goes to the NDP, it’ll be from Lore’s ministerial profile, and the Greens are projected to slip down a third of their support. If it goes to the Greens, it’ll be from Furstenau’s leadership bonus and strong ground game in the ridings she runs in.
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Moving north again, Ladysmith-Oceanside is a strangely drawn new riding out of Parksville-Qualicum and Nanaimo-North Cowichan. Like many others on this list, it voted Liberal in 2017 (according to my notional results) and then switched to the NDP in 2020.
Brett Fee, a local businessman and community member of Parksville, represents the Conservatives. On the opposite end of the riding, the NDP nominated a former trustee, Stephanie Higginson, to replace Independent MLA Adam Walker, who is attempting to seek re-election after being removed from the NDP caucus due to a human rights complaint. These two left-of-centre candidates, alongside the Green candidate Laura Ferreira, a party insider, provide an open opportunity for a massive vote split, leading to a potentially Conservative victory here on the island.
This riding will likely be a good barometer of the generic MLA's performance as an independent candidate for re-election. The reason the riding is so likely to go Conservative yet is so high on this list is because it’s possible the Green crash in polling, alongside an NDP pull not to split the vote™, could make this riding a close one when all is said and done.
Richmond-Steveston
I think it’s entirely within reason to include all four Richmond ridings on this list, but alas, only Richmond-Steveston made the cut. Kelly Greene flipped the riding in 2020 as the NDP swept through Metro Van, soaking up lost Green support, winning Richmond overall for the first time in almost 55 years, and breaking the Liberal hold on Richmond-Steveston.
Kelly Greene is running for re-election against Michelle Mollineaux of the Conservatives, Elodie Vaudandaine of the Greens, and Jackie Lee, an unaffiliated candidate you may recognize from his strong placement in the Vancouver-Strathcona byelection; he brought the BCU/Liberals back into second in the riding for the first time since 2013. He was previously the BCU candidate for the riding but is now unaffiliated. BC Liberals have an entrenched history on Lulu Island, which could play in Lee’s favour if he can organize well and if Conservatives are a step too far to the right in the eyes of voters in this riding.
The NDP holds a slight lead in Richmond-Steveston from the former BCU vote-splitting, although this riding has had some big swings from weekly updates, so this will be one to pay attention to in the coming weeks.
Nanaimo-Lantzville
Nanaimo-Lantzville is one of the most fascinating ridings in terms of candidate selections. The Conservatives have Gwen O'Mahony, a former NDP MLA from Chilliwack-Hope, who was elected in a 2012 by-election but defeated in the 2013 general. George Anderson represents the NDP and was formerly a city councillor, but I couldn’t find information about his tenure. The Greens nominated Lia Versaevel, a former Federal and Provincial candidate in the area. She isn’t particularly weak or extremely strong and generally goes with the flow of regional swings on both levels of government. In the model, I have the riding placed as Likely Conservative, considering popular MP and MLA Sheila Malcomson is not running for re-election, keeping this riding open. The predecessor riding of Nanaimo has a long history of voting for the NDP, but the redistribution includes more right-wing Lantzville, which has a history of voting Liberal.
Surrey-Cloverdale
Similarly to the Richmond ridings, it’s difficult not to crowd this list with ridings in Surrey, but Surrey-Cloverdale could be one of the ridings to decide this election if it ends up very close. Similarly to Richmond-Steveston, this riding has had a long history of sticking with the Liberals, broken in 2020 with big swings. NDP MLA Mike Starchuk is running for re-election against fourth CPBC MLA Elenore Sturko, who was elected in a by-election for Surrey South. The Greens nominated Pat McCutcheon, and the Freedom Party nominated Judy Meilleur. The NDP has consistently held the lead in this riding throughout most of the term in my BC models, and they continue to do so, although it has inched closer.
Abbotsford-Mission
Moving into the Fraser Valley, another NDP-leading riding, Abbotsford-Mission is one of a few two-way races in the province with incumbent NDP Pam Alexis, who has a long history in Mission municipal politics, not helping the divide between the Abbotsford and Mission portions of the riding. The Conservatives nominated Reann Gasper, an Abbotsford real estate agent.
Two-way races are difficult to predict, mainly when there is a history of significant pools of third-party support. In 2020, third parties got almost a combined 20% of the vote in the riding, and in 2017, that support was almost exactly 20%. If there’s one riding in the Fraser Valley that will go to the NDP, it’s most likely to be this one.
Langley-Willowbrook
Langley has been considered Metro Vancouver's firewall. When the Liberals win elections in BC, they sweep through from the Alberta border through Langley and across Metro Vancouver. When the NDP wins, they tighten their grip on Metro Vancouver and push past Langley into the Fraser Valley.
Langley Willowbrook is the most urban of the three Langley seats, sitting just east of Surrey-Cloverdale. The riding has a history of voting for Social Credit, then Liberal, then flipping in 2020. Incumbent NDP MLA Andrew Mercier is seeking re-election against Conservative Jody Toor, and the Greens nominated Petrina Arnason, a former Langley Township councillor. Currently, the Conservatives are projected to push the riding back into its previous centre-right history.
Vernon-Lumby
Vernon-Lumby could be heading towards another 2020 repeat in this election. In 2020, Vernon-Lumby flipped, voting solidly left-of-centre for the first time ever. The Conservatives received their second-best performance outside of Peace River here, splitting the vote perfectly to force an NDP victory. Harwinder Sandhu, the incumbent NDP MLA, is seeking re-election against Dennis Giesbrecht, the former Conservative candidate for Kamloops Centre, Robert Johnson of the Libertarian party, and former BCU candidate, and Mayor (and former Councillor) of Lumby, Kevin Acton.
Despite their strong previous history, the Greens didn’t nominate a candidate in this election. The Conservatives hold a slight lead in this riding, but if the right gets split, it could again be handed to the NDP.
Maple Ridge East
This riding has been a bellwether in the past, voting with the governing party every election since 1966. The riding voted NDP in 2017 and 2020, with MLA Bob D'Eith, who is seeking re-election. The Conservatives nominated Lawrence Mok, and the Greens nominated Kylee Williams. This riding has been tightening in several previous projections, but the NDP still holds a thin lead.
North Vancouver-Seymour
North Vancouver-Seymour is one of the most urban ridings on this list, being almost entirely populated in the Lynn Valley and Seymour in the suburbs of North Vancouver-Seymour. Like others on this list, however, this riding is a potential tipping point if local swings play in one of the main parties’ favour. NDP MLA Susie Chant is seeking re-election against Conservative Sam Chandola. The Greens have Subhadarshi Tripathy, and an independent candidate, Mitchell Baker, is also running. This riding is one of a few ridings with no swings in play in the modelling, making it a good view of the general swing in many close Metro Vancouver ridings.
Kootenay-Rockies
Kootenay-Rockies is one of the big wildcards between models in this election. It’s the most likely of the BCU → Independent seats to hold in my modelling. Incumbent MLA Tom Shypitka is projected to win in my model against Conservative Pete Davis, NDP Sam Atwal, and Green Kerri Wall. Shypitka is a popular MLA with lots of local support in the riding.
As a fun addition, this is a rapid-fire list of BCU MLAs running for re-election as independents or have been labelled unaffiliated:
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