The 10 Seats Deciding the Saskatchewan Election
October 17, 2024
Background
We are ending this series of October elections across the country in Saskatchewan. The Saskatchewan Party has ruled since 2007, although it has been on a steady downward decline since its 2011 peak. Saskatchewan has Canada's most extensive two-party system, with a third party not winning a seat in the Legislature in 25 years. While this streak is unlikely to be broken, we could see the first third-party breakthrough in the legislature. Saskatchewan is very interestingly divided; it’s a rare case of a majority of seats outside of urban areas, almost 60%. Comparatively, Regina has 12 seats, and Saskatoon has 14. While ‘small urban areas’ don’t count as a polled demographic, that handful would be what the NDP needs to win if they were to take back government.
Saskatchewan has seen a roughly uniform 10-point swing from the Saskatchewan Party to the NDP in all the regions, with the NDP holding their lead from 2020 in Regina. They’ve expanded in Saskatoon and nearly halved the Saskatchewan Party lead from 2020 in the polls, something I don’t think will end up being the result after election day, as the polls overestimated the NDP in rural Manitoba, which caused a couple of misses in my model.
Now, as expected, a majority of the list will be in the cities. Out of the 19 seats that aren’t classified as safe or higher, 60% are in the big cities, and if you count those small urban areas from earlier, that list inflates to 80%.
The List
Saskatoon Southeast
Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis
Regina University
Athabasca
Regina Rochdale
Regina Wascana Plains
Saskatchewan Rivers
Prince Albert Carlton
Saskatoon Stonebridge
Lumsden-Morse
Saskatoon Southeast
Beginning in the southeast of Saskatoon around the Briarwood neighbourhood, Saskatoon Southeast covers this neighbourhood and the neighbourhoods to the southwest. The ridings covering Briarwood and nearby communities have been a historical bellwether in Saskatchewan Elections. Alongside this riding history, incumbent Sask MLA Don Morgan is not seeking re-election. Hoping to hold this seat, John Owojori is a community member who has varying business endeavours. On the other side of the aisle, Brittney Senger is a non-profit organizer for local and national non-profits. Again, notably for the new Saskatchewan United, they have former MLA for Arm River, Greg Brkich. He represented the riding from 1999-2020, serving in varying ministerial positions. Currently, the Sask Party leads in the projection, but in previous projections, including the one with the NDP leading, this riding was the tipping point which brought them over the line in February.
Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis
Shifting north into the city’s northern industrial and undeveloped areas, Chief Mistawasis is primarily made of the former riding of Saskatoon Northwest. The riding’s population is mainly centred around the neighbourhood of Silverwood Heights. Like Saskatoon Southeast, this neighbourhood is a historical bellwether, and this riding will be one to watch on election night as a snapshot of the provincial picture. Like in the overall model, Chief Mistawasis leans towards the Saskatchewan Party.
Regina University
Leaving Saskatoon and moving to the capital, just down the river from the Legislative grounds, Regina University's riding saw a vast shift in its boundaries. It moved from a stretch between Whitmore Park and a small portion of Arcola East to dropping Whitmore Park entirely and moving east from the University to almost the entirety of Arcola East. In 2020, Regina University went NDP by nearly 3 points, but with the new boundaries, that flips to a Saskatchewan victory of over 15 points, powered by the annexation of deeply Sask-supporting Arcola East. Currently, the model has the riding just barely leaning to the right, with strong MLA Gene Makowsky seeking re-election here.
Athabasca
It’s hard to start describing the riding of Athabasca since the history of the riding has been completely flipped on its head. The first of my By-Election Trackers was made for this by-election in early 2022. While specific percentages weren’t fully rolled out at the time, an NDP hold was predicted, expectedly, with a comfortable margin. You should never be so confident with by-elections, as this seat voted for the Saskatchewan Party by 11 points! This was the first time a centre-right party won the seat since confederation in the province over a century prior.
Now, will Jim Lemaigre be able to hold onto this seat? I have not a clue. I’ve learned not to make sweeping statements about things I’m not 1000% certain of. Lemaigre managed to fend off an MP, for Christ’s sake. Who knows what he could or couldn’t be capable of in a general election? Based on the polls, the NDP is in the lead in my model, but if the Saskatchewan Party manages to hold onto this seat, I won’t be entirely shocked.
Regina Rochdale
In northern Regina, this is a riding that has existed since 2016, but its MLA, Laura Ross, has represented these northwestern suburbs since 2007. If she does manage to hold on against a potential NDP wave across the two major cities, it’ll be from her personal popularity in the riding, moving against the provincial swings, which is what the current projection shows. However, this riding could be a tossup if the Saskatchewan Party has a bad night in Saskatchewan’s urban ridings.
Regina Wascana Plains
Moving to the opposite side of the city of Rochdale, Regina Wascana Plains is a somewhat new riding. The former riding included both the southeastern edges of Regina to White City and a long panhandle to Last Mountain Creek. The inclusion of right-leaning neighbourhoods and rural areas has made this seat the safest in the city for the Saskatchewan Party. While longtime MLA Christine Tell seeks re-election, the new riding boundaries could make this a steeper race. The old riding produced a Saskatchewan victory by 32 points, powered by the rural areas that were cut out in the redistribution. While comparatively, notional results have them only at 27, which is still impressive; however, in a province where the uniform swing could be around 10 points, this riding could turn into a close race on election night if the NDP plays their cards in the riding just right.
Saskatchewan Rivers
Leaving the cities and moving to Saskatchewan’s typically dull rural political landscape, Saskatchewan Rivers could cause a shakeup with the creator of the Saskatchewan United Party after being booted from the Saskatchewan caucus after serving for 17 years. Nadine Wilson, MLA for Saskatchewan Rivers, solidified this seat since she was elected. She is no longer the leader of the SUP, potentially keeping the focus on holding her seat, which is challenging to do as a leader who has an expectation to tour the province. Will this gamble pay off? Unlikely, according to my model, which has her in a strong third this update, but has shown her leading in the riding in past projections. Fighting off such an entrenched party is tough, and it’s unlikely she’ll win, although this could become an upset when results roll in. It’d certainly be a moment for the history books if she does hold onto this seat, breaking the two-party monopoly on the Saskatchewan Legislature.
As an Ontarian, I feel compelled to compare the SUP and the New Blue Party, which also started in its founding MLA being removed from the main right-wing force for anti-lockdown and vaccine positions. Where things begin to differ is mainly in their local influence. Belinda Karahalios had been an MLA for only two years before being booted, compared to Wilson’s 14, alongside her serving as a reeve and various ministerial positions. In 2022, when Karahalios sought re-election under the New Blue banner, she attained only 11.1% of the vote. A similar comparison is Rick Nicholls, who joined the Ontario Party and acquired under 15% of the vote when seeking re-election in 2022. For reference, Nicholls served with the PCs for a decade before his removal.
Prince Albert Carlton
Lying just south of Saskatchewan Rivers, Prince Albert Carlton is one of the key ‘small urban area’ seats that the NDP would need to win in order to form the government. The seat is the more right-leaning of the two Prince Albert’s. Their last stint in government throughout the 90s saw them win the seat. However, since the Saskatchewan Party has held government, they’ve led in this seat. Currently, the NDP leads here, although that is due to the huge NDP jump in the rural area polls, which was a significant polling miss in MB. Only time will tell if there will be another NDP overestimation of the rurals, such as in Manitoba.
Saskatoon Stonebridge
Moving back south to our last big urban seat on the list, Saskatoon Stonebridge is a new riding formed out of suburban Saskatoon in the former riding of Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota. This riding is one of three to have a Progress Party candidate, the (more successfully) rebranded Saskatchewan Liberals. Currently, the NDP leads in this riding, but it has been close throughout the projections leading up to the current one and I’m sure the final one released on the 27th.
Lumsden-Morse
Ending off on the list, Lumsden-Morse will be a generally accurate measure of how the Saskatchewan United Party performs both in terms of previous support from the 2023 by-election to the 2024 general. In my by-election tracker, the ‘Others’ (which included Saskatchewan United at the time) was underestimated by nearly 15 points, driven by the unexpected second-place finish of the SUP in the by-election. Currently, the projection in the riding broadly matches the by-election result for whatever strange coincidence. This riding is home to the SUP leader, Jon Hromek, the candidate in the by-election. While this riding doesn’t appear to be a close race, it serves as a litmus test for three significant things: How Saskatchewan Party support breaks to the NDP and SUP in rural areas where this plays a role in margins and victories, how well the SUP can hold their support from the by-election to the general, and how the rural support will shift around for all the parties.
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