The 10 Seats Deciding the Nova Scotia General Election
November 22, 2024
Background
Just when you thought the string of elections was over, another call disrupted the pre-Christmas peace, this time in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia is not unfamiliar to shock elections, with the last four elections providing a government from each of the three major parties, the most frequent flips in government outside of Quebec’s recent four (could’ve been you, BC). Healthy majorities, one after the other, also provide for a litany of bellwethers.
Every seat but one has voted with the government party at least once in the last four elections. The ‘big six’ bellwethers (darkest on the map) are all from rural areas apart from a technical two from the outskirts of the HRM. While at the moment, the Progressive Conservatives have a healthy lead in the model overall, alongside being classified as safe or locked (margins above 15%) in all six, my model shows that if the Liberals or the NDP were to win, they’d have to win at least a couple to snatch government.
Unlike British Columbia or Saskatchewan, no region in Nova Scotia on its own has a majority of the seats, giving a unique dynamic to winning government in this province. 25 seats lie in the Mainland, 22 in the Halifax Regional Municipality, and eight in Cape Breton.
The List
Hants East
Northside-Westmount
Clayton Park West
Preston
Annapolis
Glace Bay-Dominion
Lunenburg
Yarmouth
Bedford Basin
Cole Harbour
Hants East
Starting in the province's centre, Hants East spans from the Cobequid Bay to the outer edges of Halifax. This riding has voted with the governing party since 2009 and is the closest of the previously mentioned big six, being the first to flip among them.
In 2021, now PC MLA John A. MacDonald (not the PM from history class) flipped the seat left open by incumbent Liberal MLA Margaret Miller, not seeking re-election. Mr. MacDonald is seeking re-election in a race not expected to be as tight as his last one. The NDP and Liberals did not put up generally notable candidates, aiding the PCs in this seat, although it’s still far from safe with the NDP and Liberals both having a shot at taking back the seat.
Northside-Westmount
Moving to a different region, Northside-Westmount is nestled around North Sydney up on Cape Breton. In 2021, Liberal MLA Fred Tilley took back the seat from the PCs after 23 years in their hands. Tilley crossed the floor less than a week before Premier Tim Houston called a general election. Will this advantageous move keep him in the seat? Only time will tell, although he is heavily favoured in the district at the moment. This could be one to watch as a big miss here, which could show a shift in local dynamics, likely favouring the Liberals.
Clayton Park West
Clayton Park West, a historical Liberal stronghold, could be swept out of the party benches if the party doesn’t make a recovery in the polls. This riding has been Liberal since the early 2000s, although incumbent MLA Rafah DiCostanzo is not seeking re-election, leaving this seat open for the taking. This riding’s Liberals are being dragged down by their heavy drop in Halifax polling, where they are currently down nearly 16 points from the last election, the highest of any party drop. In 2021, Liberals won the HRM by over nine points, but polling has the party down 15 points below the soaring PCs, who’ve soaked up that scattering Liberal support.
If I had to classify this race personally, I think the Liberals hold an advantage as it’s a big hurdle for the NDP (who’ve never won this seat or its predecessors) or the PCs to jump into victory here. This seat was LIB+22.83, not entirely ‘locked’ but certainly in the ‘safe’ column, and as history shows, it’s challenging to win previously safe seats in circumstances such as the one here in Clayton Park West.
Preston
Preston is a unique community out on the east side of Halifax. Like Clayton Park West, it’s been a solid Liberal seat since 2003, but it managed to flip in an upset by-election after Liberal MLA Angela Simmonds stepped down after failing to win the NSLIB leadership.
If this 2023 snapshot is any indication of where support is moving around in Halifax, the ever-growing PCs are absorbing 2021 Liberals. By-elections usually cannot be extrapolated onto regional trends, but in this case, the polls have confirmed precisely that. The NDP currently leads in this riding by just one vote in the model, although the PCs have a higher ceiling and a higher chance of winning here.
This riding will be a rematch between the NDP, PC, and Liberal candidates from the by-election, but if the NDP sees a significant gain in the HRM on election day, it could lean NDP when all the results come in. The counterpoint is that a rematch among all three major parties could spell trouble for NDP's chances here based on the strong PC performance just last year.
Annapolis
Moving back into rural Nova Scotia, Annapolis has always been one of the strongest Liberal seats in the Mainland. Thanks to star Liberal Stephen McNeil, who didn’t seek re-election in 2021, corresponding to one of the biggest Liberal drops in the region. While incumbent MLA Carman Kerr is seeking re-election, greater rural-urban polarization across the October elections and Liberal support continuing to depress further provincewide indicates this could be a tough battle.
Glace Bay-Dominion
Switching back up north to our last Cape Breton seat, while it’s not a battle of the Johns like in 2021, the last John standing, PC MLA John White, is seeking re-election. The NDP has a small pool of support centred in this riding, and neighbouring Cape Breton Centre, and their polling expansion on the island as a result only really grows to any extensive length in these two ridings. Not to mention, Cape Breton is at the highest risk for a polling error with its tiny sample sizes.
The NDP is mentioned a lot in this article, but I think it’s fair to say that they will be the stars of election night discussions, even if they don’t manage to pull into government. The NSPCs are, with little doubt, going to form a strong majority, with the NSLIBs almost surely dropping quite heavily. However, the NDP voter efficiency has a lot of room to fluctuate.
Lunenburg
Lunenburg, nestled on the South Shore, is another of the big six on this list. It has been voting with the winning party since 1999, one of the longest streaks in the province, something not expected to be broken this time either. Also, like many others on this list, the riding has a big pool of PC, Liberal, and NDP voters alike, with all three major parties receiving over 15% of the vote in every election since 1984. Incumbent PC MLA Susan Corkum-Greek is seeking re-election and is not expected to face a severe challenge, despite the Liberal’s councillor experience helping hold up their sinking poll numbers.
Yarmouth
Staying in the South Shore, Yarmouth is an interesting riding to have on this list. It’s been the seat of Liberal leader Zach Churchill since 2010, getting above 50% of the vote in his four elections. He’s holding this record steady with his leadership bonus but is still at risk of losing this seat with the organized opposition centred around the PCs. It’s projected to be the most Liberal seat in the province, holding that record from the past three elections.
Bedford Basin
Switching it back into the HRM, Bedford Basin could shape up as an interesting race. While it was LIB+25 in the last election, the riding’s history indicates it’s a so-called ‘personality riding,’ which I determine as a riding with a very fluid voter base. This type of riding is much less common nowadays, but it still exists to some extent in the Atlantic Provinces (look at Yarmouth). In the riding of Bedford Basin (and its predecessor of Bedford), Kelly Regan, wife of former MP Geoff Regan, saw large majorities in this riding, one that hadn’t seen a big pool of Liberal support for years. With Regan’s exit from politics, this seat is wide open for another party to nab the seat. Again, not to hyper-fixate on the NDP too much; however, this riding is given a heavy boost with the party’s concentration on Halifax in this campaign, making this a solid three-way race and absolutely one to be paying attention to as a measure of NDP support, compared to PC support in more urban Halifax. PCs hold an advantage here at the moment with their historic support in this area of Halifax, alongside longtime councillor running under the blue banner in this crucial seat.
Cole Harbour
The last of the ten key ridings, Cole Harbour, is nestled on the eastern side of Halifax, south of Preston. Similar to Bedford Basin, this riding will be a crucial benchmark for several things: how Liberal support holds up when their MLAs (in this case, Tony Ince) jump ship while it’s sinking, how efficient NDP support gets around Halifax compared to the polling averages, and how close that PC support can get to the urban core around the harbour. Again, like Bedford Basin, the PCs and NDP are neck and neck, while the Liberals have been pushed down into a close third.
Thank you for reading my top 10 ridings to watch on election night, which is just a few days away. Feel free to subscribe and share using the links below. A little goes a long way!